New Year, What's Next
A look ahead at what's on the horizon in 2023
In this new weekly(ish) newsletter, I’ll be sending out regular updates on what to expect next in social movements, news and politics. Think of this kind of like an annotated events calendar with possibly-helpful insights on emerging threats and exciting opportunities in our social movement landscape.
If this project works well, it could help me (and any of you who choose to subscribe) stay ahead of the news, anticipate opportunities for action (is it still rapid response if we can plan ahead?!) and hopefully be a little bit more strategic about the pace of our work.
But this is also a new-years project so it’s just as likely to not make it past Groundhog Day.
So here’s what I see coming across the horizon this week:
Republicans take control of the House
On January 3, the new Congress will be sworn in and Republicans are slated to take a narrow control of the House of Representatives. As of today, Republicans still hadn’t gotten their act together enough to pick a Speaker, although Kevin McCarthy is seems to be making concessions to shore up support in his caucus in hopes of avoiding a historic and embarrassing floor fight for the Speaker’s chair.
If McCarthy isn’t able to shore up the support he needs, his frenemies in the Freedom Caucus could force a showdown on the floor of the House at high-noon on January 3rd.
Already the Republicans’ razor thin margin looks like it might narrow with Rep. George Santos facing a number of investigations into lies about everything from his work history to his grandparents’ holocaust survival story. With no Constitutional provision that could keep him from being seated as a member of Congress and no chance that Republicans would impeach one of their own, however, Santos says he expects to be sworn in on January 3rd.
A bunch of stupid investigations
With control of the House of Representatives and the subpoena power that comes with it, Republicans are poised to launch a slew of nonsense investigations into major pressing issues of the day like Hunter Biden’s laptop, Twitter shadow-banning conservative voices, and whether or not to fire Dr. Fauci… who left government service back in December.
Could this be the year for immigration reform?
One area of substance that will certainly get the attention of the new Congress (and not in a good way) is immigration. With Title 42 held in place by the Supreme Court until they are able to hear oral arguments on the case in February, the ongoing humanitarian crisis at the border is likely to continue indefinitely.
Rather than dealing with a fundamentally broken immigration system, Republicans are doubling down with their rhetoric on border security and some members are making plans to impeach DHS Secretary Mayorkas.
But the realities of the humanitarian crisis on the border, the ongoing labor market shortage in key sectors of the economy, and an era of divided government where neither side needs to completely own the outcome of bill that has a decent amount of concessions mixed in with key priorities might actually open the door for some progress. Axios is reporting that this is a possibility the Biden White House is actively exploring.
The Agenda
The President - President Biden is spending New Years in St. Croix with his family. He’s reported to be closely considering a 2024 re-election bid during the trip with a decision coming soon.
House of Representatives - The 118th Congress will be sworn in on January 3 at 12 noon. Who knows if they’ll be able to pick a Speaker.
Senate - The Senate will briefly be in session on January 3rd, before adjourning for a state work period until after Martin Luther King Day.
Supreme Court - SCOTUS return for Conference day on Friday, January 6 and will begin hearing oral arguments for its January term on Monday, January 9.
What to Watch Out For
Reproductive Freedom
January 22 is the 50th anniversary of the Supreme Court’s ruling in Roe v. Wade. Less than a year after the new conservative supermajority on the court overturned that landmark decision with its ruling in Dodds v Jackson, organizations on all sides of the issue are mobilizing. The forced-birth movement will hold its annual March for Life on January 20 with a slew of events before and after. The Women’s March is holding a national mobilization on January 22, with actions in a number of cities across the US (although the main action is in Madison, Wisconsin … not Washington, DC).
Student Debt
The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments for two blockbuster cases on the Biden administration’s student debt relief plan on February 28th. In a double-header, the Court will hear arguments in Biden v. Nebraska and Department of Education v. Brown. Stay tuned for action plans from the student debt movement!